As I write this morning, Hurricane Dorian is now the second-strongest hurricane ever recorded. The massive Category 5 storm is nearing the eastern coast of the United States after leaving “catastrophic damage” with winds of 175 mph as it makes its way across the Bahamas.
According to the National Hurricane Center, the storm “will move dangerously close to the Florida east coast tonight through Wednesday evening.” But will it make landfall in the US?
Where will Dorian go?
Computer models now predict that the storm will skirt along Florida’s coast Tuesday and then move alongside Georgia late Tuesday and into Wednesday. But no one can be sure of its path. A low-pressure system forming to its north could lead the storm in its direction. A sagging jet stream and a weakening high-pressure system to its northeast could steer the hurricane as well.
Dorian could head out over the Atlantic, where the ocean’s cold waters would cause the storm to eventually dissipate. It could turn to the west and strike our east coast with historic severity. Or it could do something in between, lashing us with winds and rain but never making true landfall in the US.
Hurricane Faith followed a somewhat similar path in 1966, churning westward toward the US and striking Bermuda but then turning northward and eventually weakening north of Scotland. In 2012, Hurricane Sandy forced closures from Florida through the Carolinas and states of emergency all along the eastern coast before finally making landfall in New Jersey.
As many as 118 million people live on the East Coast of the United States. Any of them—or few of them—could plausibly be affected by this storm.
Another shooting in a community I love
The other major headline of the day is the shooting tragedy in West Texas. As of this morning, seven are known to have died and another twenty-two were injured. Police have identified the shooter, though, as is our policy, I will…
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