One senator could decide impeachment process: History turns on tiny hinges

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The impeachment trial continued yesterday as senators asked more questions of the House Democratic managers and President Trump’s defense team. The Senate will vote today on whether to introduce additional evidence in the trial.

Sen. Lamar Alexander (R–Tennessee) announced late last night that he would vote against such a motion. His decision is considered a “strong indication” that Republicans have the votes to block such a step. If this proves true, the Senate could complete the trial later today, though Democrats have indicated they may force additional votes that could extend the process into early Saturday. 

One senator could shorten the impeachment trial 

We will discuss the implications of the trial’s conclusion after it occurs. In the meantime, let’s consider a strategic factor at this stage of the trial. 

The Senate is composed of fifty-three Republicans, forty-five Democrats, and two Independents. For the Senate to call further witnesses, all the Democrats and Independents would have to be joined by four Republicans. Sen. Susan Collins (R–Maine) said last night that she would vote in favor of new witnesses; Sen. Mitt Romney (R–Utah) has said he would like to hear testimony from John Bolton, President Trump’s former national security advisor. 

This leaves Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R–Alaska), another swing vote, who said she would announce her position today. If she intends to vote in favor of more witnesses, the decision would likely result in a fifty-fifty tie. The tie could be broken by the presiding officer, Chief Justice John Roberts, but observers believe he would abstain. The motion would then fail because it did not succeed. 

In other words, Sen. Alexander’s decision not to seek further witnesses could prove decisive in concluding the trial. 

When the final vote comes, sixty-seven senators will be required to convict the president. While this is considered highly unlikely, note that a…

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