Five Trends of Church Closures Since the Pandemic Began

By Thom S. Rainer

“You were too late.” 

Those were the words I heard from a conference attendee where I was speaking. It took me a few minutes to understand his meaning, but I finally got it. He was referring to my book, Autopsy of a Deceased Church. But his church had already shut its doors. Any help from the book was too late for that congregation.

Church closures were not the topic of church leaders until recent years. Now, more leaders are facing the reality that no congregation is immune from decline and possible death.

I have been watching church closure trends as carefully as possible for the past several years. I use the phrase “as possible” because precise data is impossible to obtain. We simply don’t have detailed information on how many churches close in North America each year. The estimates range from 5,000 to 10,000. 

But we are able to discern some trends taking place in light of COVID-19. With churches unable to have in-person services, and with possible financial challenges, many churches are more at-risk than before the pandemic. Here are five trends we are watching closely: 

1. Church leaders are more hopeful today than they were at the onset of the pandemic and suspension of in-person services. In our earliest survey of church leaders at the onset of the pandemic, 15 percent of church leaders said their churches were at serious risk of closure. In a similar poll just a few weeks later, only 3 percent had such dire pessimism.