A total of 106,000 Bitcoin (BTC) futures contracts and options expired today, and this has investors curious about how BTC price may respond, leading into and after the expiry. 

Bears were not expecting the most recent run to $11,000, especially after two months of sideways trading activity.The 52% increase in Bitcoin futures’ aggregate open interest increase in July indicates that sellers are either excessively confident or mostly using it for hedge and arbitrage opportunities.

Bitcoin futures aggregate open interest. Source: Skew

The above data shows total futures open interest surpassing $5.2 billion, just 3% shy to its historical high in mid-February. Although this number might seem daunting, the truth is less than $500 million expired today. 

Bitcoin options were a bit more worrisome as 32% of the previous day $2.1 billion in aggregate open interest expired. Unlike futures markets, there is not much benefit in rolling over options over the last trading days.

Options contracts are a winner takes it all market, as those heavily underwater are deemed worthless. As for the $1.4 billion in open interest that did not expire today, the big question is figuring out how bullish/bearish positioned are those.

Futures open interest unfazed after 18% gains

The average leverage usage on BitMEX surpasses 20x, meaning a 10% move should be enough to liquidate 60% of traders due to insufficient margin covering their risk.

Bitcoin BTC perpetual liquidations. Source: Skew

The above chart depicts a mere $115 million in buy liquidations on July 27 despite a 12% price hike, signaling that those sellers had an unusually high margin. This a bullish indicator indeed, as most of those future contracts sellers seem to be hedged.

Options markets remain bullish

Bitcoin options open interest by expiry. Source: Skew

Bitcoin options open interest reduced by $690 million today, leaving 60% of the remaining  $1.4 billion to August and September. More importantly, one should understand the impact on the put/call ratio. This metric provides an excellent gauge of professional traders sentiment.

Bitcoin options put/call ratio. Source: Skew

As per the above chart, the put/call ratio was 63% on July 30, ahead of expiry. This indicates that options (bearish) open interest was 37% smaller than call options (bullish). Preliminary data show that indicator is currently at 69%. Despite remaining in a bullish territory, open interest for the remaining calendar shows slightly less optimism.

The net expiry result will most likely be neutral

Futures markets are naturally more balanced as longs and shorts have equivalent exposure at all times. By monitoring recent perpetual liquidation activity, one can infer that most sellers are fully hedged. Some $500 million expired today, and this is less than 10% of aggregated open interest.

Currently, BTC options markets seem to be favoring bulls, and as mentioned earlier, the most recent Bitcoin (BTC) price surge caught many bears off guard. 

Investors should closely monitor options 25% delta skew indicator and futures contracts contango, as previously reported by Cointelegraph. Each of these indicators will signal whether there is potentially excessive bullish activity.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

There are way more exciting things to Apple (AAPL) stock ownership than a looming 4-for-1 stock split, opines Bank of America Merrill Lynch tech analyst Wamsi Mohan.

To be precise, 10 exciting things in the eyes of Mohan who provided a tidy list on Friday after Apple’s blowout fiscal third quarter earnings release.

“(1) Product revenue growth despite COVID-19 related store closures and stay at home orders during fiscal third quarter reaffirms our confidence in installed base stickiness, (2) stimulus benefit shows continued price elasticity of demand for iPhones, (3) new iPhone delay creates weakness in September but upside to the December quarter, (4) management expects strong non-iPhone product performance to sustain into fiscal fourth quarter, (5) iPad and Mac installed bases attracting new users and growth continues to outperform expectations (6) Services grew slower than anticipated but margins have upward bias, (7) Apple saw new all-time revenue records in the App Store, Apple Music, Video, and Cloud services. (8) capital returns strong (returned $21 billion to shareholders in calendar first quarter with $15.9 billion in buybacks, $3.7 billion in dividends), (9) Apple announced a 4-for-1 stock split, (10) balance sheet remains solid with net cash of $81 billion and strong free cash flow generation,” Mohan writes.

The analyst reiterated his Buy rating on Apple’s stock and moved his price target up to $420 from $410.

More

Apple’s stock rose 7% to a record high Friday, inching the tech giant closer to being the first $2 trillion dollar market cap company. Mohan isn’t alone in his post-earnings optimism on Apple — most analysts have come out Friday with upwardly revised price targets and full-year earnings estimates.

“To me, this was just a massive blowout quarter,” Wedbush tech analyst Dan Ives told Yahoo Finance’s The First Trade.

Blowout indeed.

Apple posted fiscal third quarter earnings some 54 cents ahead of consensus estimates despite the global recession brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic. Total sales of $59.7 billion smashed forecasts for $52.3 billion. Apple saw growth in all its product segments and geographies. Apple CEO Tim Cook credited strength in the iPhone as the main driver for the big top and bottom lines.

“It was better than we thought largely because as we pointed out in the prepared remarks May and June were much better,” Cook told analysts on a conference call of the iPhone performance in the quarter.

Brian Sozzi is an editor-at-large and co-anchor of The First Trade at Yahoo Finance. Follow Sozzi on Twitter @BrianSozzi and on LinkedIn.

What happened

Shares of Nokia (NYSE:NOK) were climbing today after the company reported better-than-expected results in the second quarter. Nokia’s shares jumped by more than 11% during morning trading. 

As of noon EDT on Friday, Nokia’s stock was up 6.3%.

So what 

Investors were pleased to see that Nokia’s net profit increased by 21% in the second quarter to 311 million euros ($367 million). That figure easily beat Wall Street’s consensus estimate of 138 million euros in net profit. Nokia’s nondiluted earnings per share of 0.06 euros in the second quarter was up from 0.05 euros in the year-ago quarter.

Image source: Getty Images.

The profit gains came even as the company’s revenue decreased 11% from the year-ago quarter. CEO Rajeev Suri said that despite the challenges from the coronavirus pandemic, the company’s second-quarter results “show that our execution has improved as planned and that we are well-positioned to end the year with a significantly stronger financial position.” 

Including today’s gains, Nokia’s stock is up 27.5% since the beginning of this year.

Now what 

Nokia raised its full-year 2020 earnings guidance as a result of its second-quarter results. The company now expects EPS of 0.25 euros at the midpoint, up from the previous guidance of 0.23 euros. If the company meets its earnings guidance, it would be a significant improvement from the 0.03 euro loss per share in the second quarter of 2019. As with many companies right now, the coronavirus pandemic and economic headwinds in the U.S. could cause some volatility with Nokia’s stock in the coming months.

What happened

Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOG) (NASDAQ:GOOGL) stock is worth $1 trillion again — and that’s not good news.

Before earnings came out yesterday (after close of trading), the internet search giant was trading at about $1,500 a share and sported a market capitalization of $1.05 trillion. Today, investors are selling the stock — still down 4.5% as of 1:30 p.m. EDT — and the Google parent’s shares are back at the $1 trillion level.

Image source: Getty Images.

So what

And yet Alphabet didn’t even miss on earnings yesterday. It beat.

Heading into earnings, analysts had forecast that Alphabet would earn only $8.21 per share on sales of $37.4 billion. Alphabet beat those numbers with a stick, earning $10.13 on sales of $38.3 billion.

So why is the stock down today? Well, for one thing, that revenue “beat” that Alphabet reported last night was kind of Pyrrhic. Yes, on the one hand, it was better than expected. But it still represented a 2% decline in revenue from Q2 last year — the first time Alphabet has ever reported a decline in revenue from its business.

Likewise the earnings number. Alphabet beat on earnings, but it did so by reporting 29% less GAAP profit in Q2 2020 than it recorded in Q2 2019.

Now what

Don’t count Alphabet out just yet, though. Amid all the bad news, there was also good news to report. Google search revenue might have declined, but YouTube ad revenue climbed 6%. Alphabet’s cloud computing business, too, although nowhere near as big as some of its rivals’, got 43% bigger in the quarter.

Meanwhile, despite the GAAP profits drop, with operating cash rising and capital spending falling, Google generated a stellar $8.6 billion in positive free cash flow in the quarter — 23% ahead of reported net income and up 32% year over year.

Trading at roughly 32 times trailing free cash flow right now, Alphabet stock might not be cheap, but it’s still an immensely cash-profitable enterprise, and it is growing its cash strongly.

A 54-year-old New Jersey woman suffered a broken leg after she was thrown to the ground in a Staples by another customer whom she had told to wear a mask, authorities said.

Police have released surveillance video from the incident that occurred at about 3:19 p.m. Wednesday at a Staples in Hackensack.

Margot Kagan, of Teaneck, told police she was using a fax machine at the store when a woman with a mask pulled down below her mouth approached a machine next to her. Kagan, who, according to police, had a liver transplant four months ago and was walking with a cane, told the woman to put her mask on.

“The suspect became angry and yelled at the victim, who picked up her walking cane and pointed it directly at the suspect, coming within inches of the suspect’s chest,” said Capt. Darrin DeWitt, a detective with the Hackensack Police Department.

The woman then yelled at Kagan, violently threw her to the ground and left the store, DeWitt said.

Kagan was taken to a hospital where she was diagnosed with a fractured left tibia, according to DeWitt.

Gov. Phil Murphy has said all residents must wear face coverings in stores.

Police are seeking to identify the suspect.

Kagan did not immediately respond to a voicemail message and multiple calls seeking comment Friday.

(For a live blog on the U.S. stock market, click or type LIVE/ in a news window)

* Apple, Facebook at record highs after strong results

* Dow weighed down by Chevron, Exxon losses

* Indexes: S&P up 0.15%, Nasdaq adds 0.86%, Dow off 0.13% (Updates to open)

By Medha Singh and Devik Jain

July 31 (Reuters) – The S&P 500 and Dow gave up early gains on Friday as concerns about the economic damage from the COVID-19 pandemic replaced early euphoria from stunning quarterly earnings reports by Apple, Amazon.com and Facebook.

Apple Inc surged 6.4% as it delivered year-on-year revenue gains across every category and in every geography.

Amazon.com Inc jumped 4.4% after posting the biggest profit in its 26-year history, while Facebook Inc gained 7.7% it reported better-than-expected revenue.

Google-parent Alphabet Inc, on the other hand, fell 4.2% as quarterly sales dipped for the first time in its 16 years as a public company.

Investors betting on more U.S. government stimulus, before an extra $600-per-week federal jobless benefit expires on Friday, have also been disappointed as the Senate adjourned for the weekend and will return on Monday.

“There is a bit of a balancing act between the positives and negatives, a deluge of pretty strong tech earnings and then the struggle in Congress to try to get the COVID-19 stimulus package passed,” said Dan Eye, head of asset allocation and equity research at Fort Pitt Capital Group in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania.

A surge in the stock price of the tech titans, which make up nearly a fifth of the S&P 500’s value, as well as aggressive fiscal and monetary stimulus have sent the tech-heavy Nasdaq to record highs and set the S&P 500 on course for its fourth straight monthly gain.

The benchmark index is now about 4% shy of its February all-time high, but faltering macroeconomic data and rising COVID-19 cases are making investors cautious again.

Figures on Thursday confirmed the sharpest contraction in U.S. GDP since the Great Depression, while rising jobless weekly claims suggested a nascent recovery in the labor market was stalling.

“We’ve already seen a lot of positives play out and that’s reflected in the pricing (but) we don’t think the market has priced in a cushion for unexpected events on the downside,” Eye said.

At 10:01 a.m. ET, the S&P 500 was up 4.72 points, or 0.15%, at 3,250.94, and the Nasdaq Composite was up 91.00 points, or 0.86%, at 10,678.81. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 32.94 points, or 0.13%, at 26,280.71.

The second-quarter earning season is past the halfway mark with about 82.4% of companies that have reported beating significantly lowered estimates, according to Refinitiv IBES data.

Energy stocks fell the most among the 11 major S&P sectors after Chevron Corp reported an $8.3 billion loss on asset writedowns and ExxonMobil Corp recorded a second consecutive quarterly loss.

Caterpillar Inc reversed premarket gains and fell 3.2% after the heavy equipment maker signaled more pain from an uncertain economic outlook.

Declining issues outnumbered advancers 1.52-to-1 on the NYSE and 1.56-to-1 on the Nasdaq.

The S&P index recorded 25 new 52-week highs and no new low, while the Nasdaq recorded 79 new highs and six new lows. (Reporting by Medha Singh and Devik Jain in Bengaluru; Editing by Saumyadeb Chakrabarty and Shounak Dasgupta)