Bitcoin Futures Traders Bet on Bullish Price Action, but Not Too Fast – Cointelegraph

Bitcoin (BTC) futures trading has been on a high since July 21 with both the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Bakkt seeing sizeable increases in volume and open interest for their contracts. This resurgence in BTC futures comes as the spot market value of the largest crypto by market capitalization reached a new 2020 high.

Two months on from the May 2020 halving event, BTC has begun to show signs of the anticipated bullish advance. Bitcoin usually sets a new all-time high in the year following a block reward subsidy decrease, with BTC optimists stating the trend will continue.

Amid the current positive price action for Bitcoin, bullish sentiment appears to be gathering steam in the BTC futures market. Long positions currently outnumber shorts by almost 9-to-1, which means that any significant downward retracement could see a cascade of liquidations on optimistic bets, especially for traders with overleveraged longs. Back in mid-March 2020, the market panic caused by the COVID-19 pandemic saw Bitcoin fall to $3,800. This drop caused a cascade of forced liquidations, especially on derivatives exchanges like BitMEX.

Bitcoin’s price reaches new 2020 high

The price surge for BTC comes amid a raft of positive news for the crypto space with the United States Office of the Comptroller of the Currency allowing national banks to offer cryptocurrency custody services. Major economies have also been moving toward stimulus packages to alleviate the disruptions occasioned by the ongoing coronavirus pandemic. EU leaders have already approved a $2-trillion spending plan with almost half of the earmarked sum geared to support economies hardest-hit by COVID-19. In the U.S., lawmakers have been working on another round of stimulus payments, which could go as high as $3 trillion.

With the U.S. Federal Reserve printing more money in one month than in the last 200 years, investors appear to be keen on hedging against the attendant risk of currency debasement. This sentiment appears to be providing significant tailwinds for haven assets like BTC and gold. Bitcoin’s rise to a new 2020 high also coincided with gold setting a new price record per ounce. Indeed, the precious metal is close to crossing the $2,000 landmark, with silver also at its highest level in over seven years.

CME BTC futures interest sets new all-time high

As previously reported by Cointelegraph, Bitcoin futures open interest has been on the rise in tandem with the gains seen in the spot market. According to data from crypto derivatives analytics platform Skew, CME BTC futures open interest is at an all-time high of $740M.

CME BTC futures

A week after “Black Thursday,” CME Bitcoin futures open interest almost fell to their lowest level in three months. However, as spot price recovered in the weeks that followed, so too did the open interest in CME’s cash-settled BTC futures contract until the May halving. With the block reward subsidy event not triggering any immediate price gains, OI took a significant dip once again. At the time, retail crypto derivatives traders suffered liquidations to the tune of about $1.3 billion, as the BTC price saw a retrace from $10,000 to the $8,600 support level.

It is perhaps interesting to note that while OI is on the rise, trading volume has cooled off significantly over the last few days of July. The same trend can be observed for Bakkt, with open interest at an all-time high of $22 million, but trading volume has been on a downward slide for both its cash and physically settled futures contracts.

Indeed, the rising OI in Bitcoin futures is representative of the trend seen in the crypto derivatives arena as a whole. According to its Q2 2020 report, market analytics platform TokenInsight revealed that marketwide cryptocurrency derivatives OI rose from $2.62 billion to $5.53 billion in the second quarter of 2020. Typically, high OI and low volume point toward more exposure-driven activity than actual trading. Often, this scenario indicates that traders are looking to short Bitcoin’s price.

However, according to data from on-chain analytics platform Datamish.com, the ratio of percent longs to short is almost at its highest level in 2020. This trend suggests that traders expect that Bitcoin still has room for more upside. Joe DiPasquale, the CEO of crypto hedge fund BitBull Capital, told Cointelegraph that the high OI points toward traders expecting an impending uptick in volatility:

“At this time, Bitcoin is at a critical level. If it holds above $11,000 for a week or so, we can expect further appreciation. However, it will only be around $15K that we can expect actual retail FOMO and the possibility of a parabolic advance.”

For Adam Todd, the CEO of crypto derivatives exchange Digitex Futures, the rising OI means more money flowing into the Bitcoin futures market. In a conversation with Cointelegraph, Todd stated: “Generally, a rise in open interest means that the price will also rise as new money comes into the market.” Rising open interest amid declining volume also points to traders electing to adopt longer holding periods. With Bitcoin price volatility dropping to all-time lows before this current surge, short-term funds would have become unprofitable.

The ratio of BTC futures longs to shorts

Crypto derivatives trading in numbers: First half of 2020

The rising OI for CME and Bakkt is one of the many indications of increasing institutional activity in Bitcoin and crypto in general. Grayscale, the largest cryptocurrency hedge fund, has recently seen its total assets under management top the $5-billion mark.

Indeed, Grayscale’s AUM grew by about $500 million in barely a week to add to the over $1.4-billion surge recorded in the first half of 2020. While the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust is still the overwhelmingly dominant product in the company’s catalog, Litecoin (LTC) shares have grown over the past month, which indicates some institutional appetite for the seventh-largest crypto by market capitalization. The surge in Litecoin share ownership coincided with LTC keeping up with Bitcoin’s price gains even as other altcoins saw red. Commenting on the prospects of greater institutional involvement in Bitcoin, Todd remarked:

“I think that Bitcoin’s recent breakout, especially at a time when traditional markets are so uncertain, will certainly cause more institutional investors to take a second, third or even fourth look at adding BTC to their portfolios. However, institutions will likely wait for a price correction, unlike retail investors they are not going to chase a rally.”

Bitcoin options OI also on the rise

Apart from futures, the OI for Bitcoin options has also seen a similar increase. Of the $2.2 billion in total open interest for BTC options, Deribit accounts for $1.79 billion, which amounts to an 80% dominance of the market. Again, as is the case with the futures arena, the rising OI for BTC options is happening alongside a decline in trading volume. Apart from dominating the Bitcoin options OI, Deribit also controls over 90% of the market’s trading volume, up from the 60% dominance achieved in Q2 2020.

Data from Skew shows the Bitcoin options put/call ratio, or PCR, is beginning to climb steadily. A rising PCR typically indicates bullish sentiments, and at 0.63, traders appear to be expecting more upside for BTC. However, when PCR begins to approach the 1.0 mark, a contrarian interpretation usually forms for the indicator, as high PCR values usually front-run the emergence of bearish sentiments as seen in May before the halving event. Leading up to the 2020 halving, the Bitcoin options PCR rose to 0.81, its highest level in 2020. A few days later, BTC experienced a retrace from $10,000 to the $8,600 price level.

BTC put/Call ratios

A similar situation occurred the last time the BTC options PCR nearly reached 1.0, which was in late June 2019. Bitcoin went on a downward slide for the second half of 2019, ending the year at $7,300. If the trend holds, then the current upward price action could be interrupted by a significant pullback. According to DiPasquale, such a retrace is to be expected:

“Nearly all quick surges are followed by pullbacks, which are healthy for market action since profit-taking allows investors/traders to take breaks, and new capital can enter the market as floors are established. At the moment, the zone between $10,000 and $10,500 presents a solid support zone for any pullbacks.”

The 106,000 BTC (~$1.2 billion) in Bitcoin futures and options that expired on July 31 might also have some impact on the price action in Q3 2020. For Bitcoin options, over $1.4 billion in aggregate open interest is still available to trade in August and September.

With Bitcoin breaking from its sideways accumulation, crypto derivatives trading might see a resurgence in Q3 2020. According to the TokenInsight report, cryptocurrency derivatives trading topped $2 trillion for the second quarter in a row, resulting in “a year-on-year increase of 165.56% from the second quarter of 2019.”

With $2.159 trillion in volume, crypto derivatives accounted for about 27.4% of the total cryptocurrency trading market, as reported by TokenInsight. Despite the lull in price action for about half of the period, the crypto derivatives niche still saw a marginal increase while spot volume fell 18%.

Fox News Virtual Auto Show: Your HUMMER trucks – Fox News

Not everyone can get together these days, so Fox News is holding a series of virtual car shows where you can share and discuss your cool cars, trucks and motorcycles with the rest of the Fox News Autos audience.

They’re still humming along.

Arnold Schwartzenegger had his H1 converted to electric drive.

Arnold Schwartzenegger had his H1 converted to electric drive.
(BG004/Bauer-Griffin/GC Images)

General Motors is taking the HUMMER brand into the future with the upcoming electric GMC HUMMER EV, but there are still plenty of classic models on the road.

FOX NEWS AUTOS INVESTIGATES: HAT IS THE GMC HUMMER EV’S “CRAB” MODE?

We’ve posted a few of our favorites submitted to this week’s Fox News Virtual Auto Show below so you can chat about them in the comments. Don’t forget to check out more of the submissions on Twitter and add your own:

(NOTE: This is an independent FoxNews.com online production based on a timely event and in no way a collaboration with General Motors.)

Health officials link US salmonella outbreak to red onions – The Associated Press

Federal health officials say an outbreak of salmonella infecting nearly 400 people in more than 30 states has been linked to red onions, and identified a California company as the likely source.

The Food and Drug Administration said in a statement on Friday that Thomson International Inc. of Bakersfield, California, has notified the food agency that it will be recalling all varieties of onions that could have come in contact with potentially contaminated red onions because of the risk of cross-contamination.

This recall would include red, white, yellow, and sweet onions from Thomson International, the agency said.

Thomson couldn’t immediately be reached for comment.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention says that Salmonella Newport has sickened 396 people and landed nearly 60 in the hospital. There have been no deaths linked to the outbreak, which was first identified July 10 and has since grown. The agency says the illnesses began between mid-June and mid-July.

The Public Health Agency of Canada is also investigating an outbreak of Salmonella Newport illnesses that have a genetic fingerprint closely related to the U.S. outbreak, that agency said Thursday.

___

D’Innocenzio reported from New York.

Trumps TikTok ban could make Big Tech even more dominant – CNN

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Jim Jordan’s (R-OH) questions for Google CEO Sundar Pichai during a hearing before a congressional antitrust committee, a fiery exchange erupted between members of the committee regarding Jordan’s subject matter. “},{“title”:”Under questioning, Zuckerberg admits Instagram was a ‘competitor'”,”duration”:”02:24″,”sourceName”:”CNN”,”sourceLink”:””,”videoCMSUrl”:”/video/data/3.0/video/business/2020/07/29/zuckerberg-nadler-instagram-competitor.cnn/index.xml”,”videoId”:”business/2020/07/29/zuckerberg-nadler-instagram-competitor.cnn”,”videoImage”:”//cdn.cnn.com/cnnnext/dam/assets/200729165905-zuck-nadler-2-large-169.jpg”,”videoUrl”:”/videos/business/2020/07/29/zuckerberg-nadler-instagram-competitor.cnn/video/playlists/business-tech/”,”description”:”Responding to questions from House Judiciary Committee Chairman Rep. 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Zuckerberg said Facebook has “certainly adapted features” from other companies.”,”descriptionText”:”Rep. Pramila Jayapal questioned Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg on copying competitors at the House Judiciary Subcommittee antitrust panel. Zuckerberg said Facebook has “certainly adapted features” from other companies.”},{“title”:”Russian misinformation isn’t new. Social media just made it easier to spread”,”duration”:”03:45″,”sourceName”:”CNN Business”,”sourceLink”:””,”videoCMSUrl”:”/video/data/3.0/video/business/2020/07/23/russian-disinformation-misinformation-social-media-orig.cnn-business/index.xml”,”videoId”:”business/2020/07/23/russian-disinformation-misinformation-social-media-orig.cnn-business”,”videoImage”:”//cdn.cnn.com/cnnnext/dam/assets/200727150336-russian-disinformation-large-169.jpg”,”videoUrl”:”/videos/business/2020/07/23/russian-disinformation-misinformation-social-media-orig.cnn-business/video/playlists/business-tech/”,”description”:”Long before there were fake accounts and fake news on Facebook, there were fake news stories planted in small print newspapers that eventually spread. CNN Business looks at how technology has made Russian disinformation easier to spread with little risk.”,”descriptionText”:”Long before there were fake accounts and fake news on Facebook, there were fake news stories planted in small print newspapers that eventually spread. 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CNN’s Hadas Gold reports.”,”descriptionText”:”President Trump shared multiple versions of the video with his 84 million Twitter followers despite the dubious claims running counter to his administration’s own public health experts. CNN’s Hadas Gold reports.”},{“title”:”This AI technology tracks employees to enforce social distancing”,”duration”:”03:15″,”sourceName”:”CNN Business”,”sourceLink”:”http://www.cnn.com/business”,”videoCMSUrl”:”/video/data/3.0/video/business/2020/07/27/ai-employee-tracking-technology-coronavirus-orig.cnn-business/index.xml”,”videoId”:”business/2020/07/27/ai-employee-tracking-technology-coronavirus-orig.cnn-business”,”videoImage”:”//cdn.cnn.com/cnnnext/dam/assets/200727172650-camio-ai-employee-tracking-large-169.jpg”,”videoUrl”:”/videos/business/2020/07/27/ai-employee-tracking-technology-coronavirus-orig.cnn-business/video/playlists/business-tech/”,”description”:”As the Covid-19 pandemic continues, companies are plotting what a safe return to the office looks like. To enforce social distancing and mask wearing, AI technology that tracks employees’ locations is becoming increasingly popular. But privacy experts warn that may not be the best solution.”,”descriptionText”:”As the Covid-19 pandemic continues, companies are plotting what a safe return to the office looks like. To enforce social distancing and mask wearing, AI technology that tracks employees’ locations is becoming increasingly popular. But privacy experts warn that may not be the best solution.”},{“title”:”Google extends work from home policy amid pandemic”,”duration”:”02:48″,”sourceName”:”CNN”,”sourceLink”:”https://www.cnn.com/”,”videoCMSUrl”:”/video/data/3.0/video/business/2020/07/27/google-work-from-home-policy-twitter-facebook-coronavirus-brian-todd-tsr-pkg-vpx.cnn/index.xml”,”videoId”:”business/2020/07/27/google-work-from-home-policy-twitter-facebook-coronavirus-brian-todd-tsr-pkg-vpx.cnn”,”videoImage”:”//cdn.cnn.com/cnnnext/dam/assets/200713104905-google-logo-large-169.jpg”,”videoUrl”:”/videos/business/2020/07/27/google-work-from-home-policy-twitter-facebook-coronavirus-brian-todd-tsr-pkg-vpx.cnn/video/playlists/business-tech/”,”description”:”u003ca href=”https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/27/tech/google-work-from-home-extension/index.html” target=”_blank”>Google will let employees work from home until at least July 2021, according to a company spokepersonu003c/a>. The decision means that one of the world’s largest tech companies is bracing for a long pandemic — and could prompt other businesses to follow suit. CNN’s u003ca href=”https://www.cnn.com/profiles/brian-todd-profile” target=”_blank”>Brian Toddu003c/a> reports.”,”descriptionText”:”u003ca href=”https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/27/tech/google-work-from-home-extension/index.html” target=”_blank”>Google will let employees work from home until at least July 2021, according to a company spokepersonu003c/a>. The decision means that one of the world’s largest tech companies is bracing for a long pandemic — and could prompt other businesses to follow suit. CNN’s u003ca href=”https://www.cnn.com/profiles/brian-todd-profile” target=”_blank”>Brian Toddu003c/a> reports.”},{“title”:”Palantir’s CEO says its tech is used ‘on occasion’ to kill people. Here’s why it’s worth billions”,”duration”:”04:19″,”sourceName”:”CNN”,”sourceLink”:”cnn.com/business”,”videoCMSUrl”:”/video/data/3.0/video/business/2020/07/24/thiel-palantir-js-orig.cnn/index.xml”,”videoId”:”business/2020/07/24/thiel-palantir-js-orig.cnn”,”videoImage”:”//cdn.cnn.com/cnnnext/dam/assets/200724165329-alex-karp-palantir-large-169.jpg”,”videoUrl”:”/videos/business/2020/07/24/thiel-palantir-js-orig.cnn/video/playlists/business-tech/”,”description”:”When you hear anyone talk about Palantir, the first words used to describe it are almost always “secretive.” CNN’s Jon Sarlin explores how the Silicon Valley tech company has leveraged its close relationships within the U.S. government to earn a multi-billion dollar valuation.”,”descriptionText”:”When you hear anyone talk about Palantir, the first words used to describe it are almost always “secretive.” CNN’s Jon Sarlin explores how the Silicon Valley tech company has leveraged its close relationships within the U.S. government to earn a multi-billion dollar valuation.”},{“title”:”Bill Gates’ message to Covid-19 conspiracy theorists”,”duration”:”04:56″,”sourceName”:”CNNBusiness”,”sourceLink”:”https://www.cnn.com/business”,”videoCMSUrl”:”/video/data/3.0/video/business/2020/07/24/bill-gates-conspiracy-theories-coronavirus-covid-19-social-media-town-hall-vpx.cnnbusiness/index.xml”,”videoId”:”business/2020/07/24/bill-gates-conspiracy-theories-coronavirus-covid-19-social-media-town-hall-vpx.cnnbusiness”,”videoImage”:”//cdn.cnn.com/cnnnext/dam/assets/200723210228-bill-gates-02-7-23-large-169.jpg”,”videoUrl”:”/videos/business/2020/07/24/bill-gates-conspiracy-theories-coronavirus-covid-19-social-media-town-hall-vpx.cnnbusiness/video/playlists/business-tech/”,”description”:”Microsoft founder Bill Gates responds to the many conspiracy theories and widespread falsehoods online about him and the Covid-19 pandemic.”,”descriptionText”:”Microsoft founder Bill Gates responds to the many conspiracy theories and widespread falsehoods online about him and the Covid-19 pandemic.”},{“title”:”What is QAnon? 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Top Stories: Try the 5.4-Inch iPhone 12 Display Size, Blockbuster Earnings, Tim Cook at Antitrust Hearing – MacRumors

Another busy week of Apple news and rumors has wrapped up, with a lot of focus on Tim Cook’s appearance at a Congressional antitrust hearing and a blockbuster earnings report.

Subscribe to the MacRumors YouTube channel for more videos.

We continued to hear rumors about the upcoming iPhone 12 lineup, including a rare admission from Apple that the lineup will launch “a few weeks later” than usual. We also put together some scaled images that will let you see how small the new 5.4-inch screen size will seem for those considering Apple’s upcoming compact flagship iPhone option.

Read on below and check out our video above for details on these stories and more from the past week!

Just How Small Will the 5.4-Inch iPhone 12 Screen Be? Try It Out for Yourself

Apple’s iPhone 12 lineup coming later this year is strongly rumored to include a new smaller model with a 5.4-inch display that will result in the most compact overall device size in many years.



But for users on any of Apple’s more recent flagship phones, will that screen size be too tiny to consider? We decided to find out and created scaled images of
what the iPhone home screen will look like on the smaller screen so you can try it out for yourself using your current phone!

In other iPhone 12 news and rumors this week, we saw leaked photos of the alleged 5.4-inch displays and the RAM portion of the main A14 chip that will power the iPhone 12 models.

Finally, Apple has confirmed that the new lineup of iPhones will launch “a few weeks later” than usual, likely pushing their debut into October.

Apple Reports 3Q 2020 Results: $11.25B Profit on $59.7B Revenue, 4-for-1 Stock Split Announced

Despite the global health crisis, Apple this week reported strong earnings in the most recent quarter, setting June quarter records for revenue and earnings per share. Mac and iPad sales were very strong thanks partly to the shift to work-from-home environments, while iPhone sales came in stronger than expected due to the popularity of the new iPhone SE.



Apple also announced a four-for-one stock split that will take place at the end of the month, bringing the company’s share price down to around $100 after it
broke through the $400 mark following the earnings report.

Apple CEO Tim Cook Testifies in U.S. Antitrust Hearing

Apple CEO Tim Cook participated in a five-and-a-half hour Congressional hearing this week focused mainly on antitrust and competition issues, with Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos, Alphabet/Google CEO Sundar Pichai, and Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg also participating.



While Cook was spared some of the grilling focused on the other executives, he still faced a number of questions about Apple’s policies and actions while documents released as part of the hearing revealed additional tidbits.

During the hearing, Cook argued that Apple treats App Store developers fairly and that there is an abundance of options in a “street fight for market share in the smartphone business.” He was also questioned about parental control apps and Apple’s Screen Time feature, as well as the recent “Hey” email app controversy.

In other documents shared by the committee, it was revealed that Apple back in 2011 considered increasing its commission on some subscription apps to 40% from the usual 30%, while in 2016 Apple considered halving its commission for Amazon in order to get an Amazon Prime Video app on the App Store.

Battery Likely for Upcoming MacBook Air Spotted in Certification Listings

We’re expecting the MacBook Air to be one of the first Macs to make the transition from Intel processors to Apple Silicon later this year, and regulatory certifications for a new battery that looks to be for the MacBook Air have recently appeared online.



We don’t know the timing of a release for the MacBook Air, but the Apple Silicon version is expected before the end of the year. Meanwhile, leaker Jon Prosser says an
updated iMac should launch in August, attempting to tamp down some rumors from last weekend that a debut was imminent.

Apple Patent Suggests Two iPads Could Be Connected Together for Notebook-Style Computing

A pair of patents revealed this week shed some light on some interesting work Apple is doing, but it’s hard to say whether any of the technology will make its way into future products. The first patent covers a dock accessory that would let two tablet devices like iPads be connected together to operate similarly to a notebook computer.



The second involves headphones that use a
hybrid audio system that combines traditional air-based audio transmission with bone conduction, avoiding some of the drawbacks of regular bone conduction audio implementations.

VMware Engineer Confirms macOS Catalina 10.15.6 Bug Causes Crashes with Virtualization

macOS Catalina 10.15.6 appears to have a significant bug affecting virtualization software like VMware and VirtualBox. The bug results in repeated crashes when trying to run virtual machines and it looks like it will require a fix from Apple to address it.



In the meantime, users are urged to avoid upgrading to 10.15.6, or at least shut down virtual machines when not in use and reboot frequently to try to avoid the crashes.

Mac OS 8 Emulator Available as a Downloadable App

Old-school Mac fans may be interested to learn that Mac OS 8 is now available as an app for macOS, Windows, and Linux.



Slack developer Felix Rieseberg transformed an entire 1991 Macintosh Quadra with Mac OS 8.1 into a single Electron app, including several apps and games from a 1997 demo CD.

MacRumors Newsletter

Each week, we publish an email newsletter like this highlighting the top Apple stories, making it a great way to get a bite-sized recap of the week hitting all of the major topics we’ve covered and tying together related stories for a big-picture view.

So if you want to have top stories like the above recap delivered to your email inbox each week, subscribe to our newsletter!

Trader Joes Says Its Keeping Ethnic Food Names After All, Despite Petition by – Newser

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Chain seems to do 180 after teen’s petition to change branding she said was offensive

Posted Aug 1, 2020 8:00 AM CDT


(Newser)

A California teen’s petition to get Trader Joe’s to change the branding on some of its international food items looked like it hit home with the grocery chain, but after hinting on a phaseout, management seems to be backtracking on that plan. Briones Bedell has noted some of the items in question featured “racist” packaging “that perpetuates harmful stereotypes,” mostly via alterations to the word “Joe”: “Trader Ming’s,” for example, included on packaging for some of the chain’s Chinese food offerings, or “Trader Jose” for Mexican fare. Bedell also has a beef with the store’s overall branding, saying its theme was based on “a racist book and a controversial theme park attraction” (Disneyland’s Jungle Cruise ride). The high school senior’s petition had more than 5,300 signatures as of Saturday, and Trader Joe’s itself issued a statement that seemed to indicate it took Bedell’s ask to heart.

Via a rep, the chain said it was “in the process of updating older labels and replacing any variations with the name Trader Joe’s, and we will continue to do so until we complete this important work,” per ABC News. That doesn’t seem to be the case anymore. Fox News reports on a new statement on the company’s website that says earlier reports were “inaccurate” and that “we disagree that any of these labels are racist. We do not make decisions based on petitions.” It noted its “Buying Team” had reviewed some older items and discontinued products that weren’t selling well, but that the products Bedell complained about were popular with patrons. “Products that resonate with our customers and sell well will remain on our shelves,” it added. Bedell’s response: “Surely, the owners of Trader Joe’s could afford to hire a diversity officer to assist their ‘Buying Team.’ Or, at the very least, a new PR team?” (Read more Trader Joe’s stories.)
 

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Why Tesla has a huge lead over its competition: Branding and Elon Musk – Business Insider

In the car business, it’s often said that brands are grand, but products pay the bills. In other words, you can capture or retain customers with what your company stands for, but long-term, if you don’t have great vehicles, you’re going to have a problem.

For almost its entire history, more than 15 years, Tesla has inverted that wisdom. A few years ago, the carmaker was barely selling any vehicles relative to its global competitors. Last year, Tesla delivered only about 250,000 vehicles, while General Motors sold almost 8 million.

Investors have decided that this means Tesla should be worth $300 billion in market capitalization, more valuable than GM, Ford, and Fiat Chrysler Automobiles combined — and topping Volkswagen and Toyota, the two biggest automakers on Earth.

Vehicle sales obviously don’t add up to $300 billion in value; Tesla’s quarterly revenue remains far below a Detroit Big Three car company. It’s a bet on the future, and a prediction that Tesla should be able to expand its near-monopoly of the EV market as that market grows from a currently tiny basis, merely 1-2% of worldwide sales.

Investor optimism is that Tesla will maintain a dominant share, increase it scale, and notch enviable profit margins, perhaps more than 10% (high-volume luxury carmakers operate at that level, while mass-market companies run in the single-digit range). 

But for now, the Tesla brand is mighty. Here’s how that happened:

These Coronavirus Vaccine Makers Are Winning the Money Game So Far – Motley Fool

It’s difficult if not impossible to accurately assess which novel coronavirus vaccine candidates in clinical testing are likely to be the safest and most effective. For the most part, all we have to go on at this point are preliminary results from early-stage clinical studies. While several candidates appear to be promising, it’s still too soon to know just how well they’ll work in larger phase 3 trials.

However, there is one way to compare the vaccine candidates that’s much more concrete: Look at how much money they’ve attracted in development funding and supply agreements. Here are the COVID-19 vaccine makers that are winning the money game so far, with more than $1 billion in funding lined up.

$100 bills falling from the sky, each with a surgical mask on Ben Franklin's face

Image source: Getty Images.

1. Sanofi/GlaxoSmithKline

Sanofi (NASDAQ:SNY) and GlaxoSmithKline (NYSE:GSK) take the top honors. Just last week, the two drugmakers announced that the U.S. government will provide funds of up to $2.1 billion for developing their protein-based, adjuvanted coronavirus vaccine candidate. Sanofi and GSK will provide 100 million doses initially, assuming all goes well in clinical testing.

What’s really surprising about Sanofi and GSK ranking No. 1 is that their COVID-19 vaccine candidate hasn’t even begun a clinical trial yet. Sanofi is taking the lead role in developing the experimental vaccine. The big drugmaker hopes to start a phase 1/2 study in September.

The U.S. deal could become a larger one in the future, with the option for the U.S. to buy an additional 500 million doses of the Sanofi/GSK vaccine. Sanofi and GSK are also in talks with the European Commission and the governments of other countries about potentially supplying COVID-19 vaccine doses.

2. Novavax

Novavax (NASDAQ:NVAX) ranks No. 2 in terms of funding among all drugmakers developing COVID-19 vaccine candidates. So far, the clinical-stage biotech has received commitments of nearly $2.05 billion for its coronavirus vaccine candidate, NVX-CoV2373.

Novavax first received $4 million in March from the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI) to support early-stage testing of the company’s COVID-19 vaccine candidate. In May, CEPI upped its funding commitment to $388 million. This additional cash assisted Novavax’s phase 2 development of NVX-CoV2373. It also helped the biotech scale up its manufacturing of the vaccine and increase the production of its Matrix-M adjuvant.

In June, the U.S. Department of Defense awarded Novavax a $60 million contract, with the company agreeing to supply 10 million doses of NVX-CoV2373 to the military if the vaccine received Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) from the Food and Drug Administration. But the really big prize came in July, when the U.S. government’s Operation Warp Speed awarded $1.6 billion to Novavax to complete late-stage development of its COVID-19 vaccine candidate, expand its manufacturing capacity, and supply 100 million doses of NVX-CoV2373 to the United States.

3. Pfizer/BioNTech

Pfizer (NYSE:PFE) and BioNTech (NASDAQ:BNTX) come in close behind Novavax. The two partners have scored at least $1.95 billion from a supply deal with the U.S. government.

On July 22, Pfizer and BioNTech announced a deal with the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) and the U.S. Department of Defense. In exchange for $1.95 billion, the two companies agreed to supply 100 million doses of the lead COVID-19 vaccine candidate developed in the companies’ BNT162 program (pending FDA approval or an EUA). The agreement also gives the U.S. government an option to buy another 500 million doses of the vaccine.

Pfizer and BioNTech arguably deserve a higher spot. The two partners also secured a supply deal in July with the United Kingdom to supply 30 million doses of their COVID-19 vaccine candidate. However, the financial terms of this agreement weren’t announced.

4. AstraZeneca

AstraZeneca (NYSE:AZN) runs neck-and-neck with Pfizer and BioNTech in the coronavirus-vaccine money game. The British drugmaker has hauled in funding of at least $1.95 billion so far for AZD1222, the COVID-19 vaccine candidate that it teamed up with the University of Oxford to develop.

Much of this amount came from a $1.2 billion commitment from the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA) in May. The funds will help AstraZeneca advance clinical studies of AZD1222 and scale up manufacturing for the vaccine. AstraZeneca agreed to supply at least 300 million doses to the U.S., assuming the vaccine wins FDA approval or EUA.

AstraZeneca also signed a $750 million deal with CEPI and public-private health partnership Gavi in June. These funds went toward supporting the manufacturing and distribution of 300 million doses of AZD1222.

Like Pfizer and BioNTech, AstraZeneca could easily rank higher on the list. However, the financial terms of its other supply deals, with the Serum Institute of India and Europe’s Inclusive Vaccines Alliance, weren’t disclosed.

Honorable mention

There’s also a drugmaker that deserves an honorable mention. Moderna (NASDAQ:MRNA) has received as much as $955 million in funding from BARDA to support the development of its COVID-19 vaccine candidate mRNA-1273.

In terms of stock performance so far this year, though, Moderna is well ahead of all of the other big drugmakers winning the COVID-19 vaccine money game: The biotech stock is up more than 300%. However, that’s still way behind Novavax’s year-to-date gain of close to 3,500%.