Invest Your Retirement Savings in This Warren Buffett Pick – Motley Fool

Warren Buffett is well known for his investing prowess — the Oracle of Omaha has made billions due to his smart stock purchases. With his reputation as one of the world’s best investors, it’s not surprising many people watch his purchases and recommendations carefully to inform their own stock-buying habits. 

Of course, even Buffett isn’t perfect, so for most of his recommendations, there’s no guarantee you’ll make money. However, Buffett did offer one investment pick that’s virtually a sure thing — and if you follow his advice and invest your retirement savings in it, you’re all but guaranteed to earn a good return over time. 

Jar full of coins with plant growing out of it.

Image source: Getty Images.

As close to a sure thing as you can get

So what’s Buffett’s can’t-miss recommendation? It’s an S&P 500 index fund

Index funds track the performance of a specific financial index — in this case, the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index. The S&P 500 is made up of the 500 largest, publicly traded companies in the U.S. stock market, weighted by market capitalization (the total dollar value of the company’s outstanding stock shares). 

Because the index includes virtually all of the biggest U.S. companies, it’s widely viewed as a benchmark index for the stock market as a whole. In other words, if analysts or news articles are saying the “stock market” is going up, it probably means the S&P 500 index is rising in value. 

S&P 500 index fund provides you with instant diversification because buying into this index means you own a small piece of 500 large U.S. companies that represent a wide variety of different industries. And because the companies included on the index are usually well-established household names such as Microsoft, Apple, and Facebook, the risks of investing in this index are low.   

In fact, if you look at the historic performance of the S&P 500, it’s always gone up over the long term — the index has produced average annualized returns of 9% to 10% over time. The index avoids the concept of trying to time the market too, as every 20 year investment period eluded sustained losses

That means that while you may experience some short-term losses during market corrections, putting your money into the S&P 500 is virtually guaranteed to earn you a reasonable rate of return over a long enough time horizon. That’s likely why Buffett recommended putting as much as 90% of their money into it — especially if you don’t want to take the time to research individual stocks. 

The chart below really helps drive this point home — it shows the performance of the S&P 500 for the last 90 years, with the grey areas showing periods when the US was in a recession. As you can see, there were some dips during troubled economic times, but the overall trend has gone in one direction over time.

Should you follow Buffett’s advice?

Investing in the S&P 500 is one of the best and simplest ways to invest in stocks if you don’t want to take the time to find individual companies to purchase shares of. But while you’ll almost assuredly do well over time by investing in an S&P index fund, you aren’t going to beat the market by doing so. 

If your goal is to outperform the broader market, you may be able to do much better than simply sticking your money in an index fund, if you’re willing to put in the work. In fact, investors who made smart buys and purchased stocks such as Netflix or Amazon in the early days would’ve made far more than the average annual return the S&P provided. 

But unless you enjoy researching stocks and are excited about spending the time to find companies you believe will do better than the S&P, taking Buffett’s advice on this one is the best move to make.

Dunkin Donuts employee arrested after cop finds large, thick piece of mucus in his coffee – ABC News

The cop discovered the saliva when he took off the lid to cool the coffee down.

A Dunkin’ Donuts employee has been arrested after a police officer found a “large, thick piece of mucus which was later confirmed to be saliva” in his coffee.

The incident occurred at approximately 10:20 p.m. on July 30 when an Illinois State Police (ISP) District Chicago Trooper bought a large black coffee from a Dunkin’ Donuts establishment located on Archer Avenue in Chicago, Illinois.

“Due to the coffee being extremely hot, the Trooper removed the lid from the top of the cup to cool it down,” the Illinois State Police said in a statement.

It was then that the officer noticed the mucus and saliva floating inside his coffee cup.

The ISP immediately began an investigation into the incident which culminated just a couple of hours later with the arrest of 25-year-old Dunkin’ Donuts employee Vincent J. Sessler.

Sessler was taken into custody without incident by the ISP District Chicago Troopers and has been charged with Disorderly Conduct and Battery to a Peace Officer.

ISP Director Brendan F. Kelly issued a stern statement about the incident.

“This is outrageous and disgusting,” said Kelly. “The men and women of the Illinois State Police put their heart and soul into protecting the lives and rights of all people in this state every day. They deserve better than this insulting and dangerous treatment.”

Kelly also said that ISP officers and employees will now be prohibited from patronizing that Dunkin’ Donuts location for their own safety.

Sessler currently remains in custody at the Chicago Police Department’s 8th District while the investigation continues.

Stimulus talks have stalled. But the pressure to act is rising – CNN

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Madison police investigating armed robbery at McDonalds – Channel3000.com – WISC-TV3

Madison police investigates armed robbery.

MADISON, Wis. — Madison police are investigating an armed robbery that happened at a McDonald’s Sunday morning.

According to a incident report, the robbery happened the McDonald’s on 2901 Dryden Drive at 2:13 a.m.  Police said two employees were held at knife point by a suspect who demanded money from the safe. The suspect punched one employee several times and made the victims lay on the ground before leaving with an unknown amount of money, the report said.

Law enforcement officials said a K9 was used to search for the suspect and video evidence was collected from the restaurant.

Anyone with information on this incident, is asked to contact Madison Area Crime Stoppers at 266-6014 or on the web at P3Tips.com.


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Bitcoin drops by 7 percent in the hour after breaking $12,000 – AMBCrypto English

A week after Bitcoin’s $10,000 resurgence, the first inklings of a reversal, if not a dump, are visible. Between 0400 UTC  to 0500 UTC on 2 August, Bitcoin’s price dropped by over $1,000 an 8 percent price drop in the hour.

Only a few hours before this dump Bitcoin had broken the $12,000 ceiling. The last time Bitcoin was priced over $12,000 was August 2019, before the price fell as low as $7,000 owing to a descending triangle breakdown, the failure of the launch of important institutional products like Bakkt and China’s position on Bitcoin and cryptocurrency exchanges. 

Source: BTCUSD via Trading View

Two weeks ago, Bitcoin began its bullish move from $9,200 to over $10,000 on July 26. This is the cryptocurrency’s first big move since the halving in May 2020, when a two-month-long sideways movement began. Between June to July, Bitcoin’s realized volatility dropped to 23 percent, its lowest since March 2019. 

Beginning on July 22, the price began to resurge. Following the positive news of banking cryptocurrency custody solutions being given the green light by US regulators and a steady increase of money inflow into the Bitcoin markets, the price began to slowly increase. Between July 22 and July 26, the price moved from $9,200 to just shy of $10,000 a level which it failed to consolidate above in May and June, despite the supply change owing to the halving. 

Last week’s $10,000 move was unlikely to be a result of a whale move as there were no reports of a larger buy order placed above the trading price of Bitcoin and was gauged to be an organic breakout from a period of low volatility. 

The press time breakdown of Bitcoin’s price was $11,200, a week after it moved above, is a testament to the topsy-turvy nature of the cryptocurrency market.

Why Apples Stock Split Truly Shocked Shareholders – Motley Fool

Tech giant Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) has broken all the rules of stock market investing. Its huge returns in 2019 and so far in 2020 fly in the face of those who’ve said that the iPhone maker’s best days are behind it. Its market capitalization of nearly $1.8 trillion seems too large for further gains, yet Apple keeps breaking the law of large numbers to push ever higher.

Now, Apple has once again flown in the face of convention, this time with its stock. In an era in which stock splits have almost disappeared, the Cupertino-based tech giant said that it would split its shares 4-for-1. Although the decision wouldn’t have seemed out of place as recently as a few years ago, it now is sparking a lot of discussion about whether more companies will follow suit with stock splits of their own.

Hardly an unprecedented move

Apple is no stranger to splitting its shares. It has done so on four prior occasions, as you can see below:

Effective Date of Split

Split Ratio

100 Shares in 1986 Would Now Be:

June 16, 1987

2-for-1

200 shares

June 21, 2000

2-for-1

400 shares

Feb. 28, 2005

2-for-1

800 shares

June 9, 2014

7-for-1

5,600 shares

Aug. 31, 2020*

4-for-1

22,400 shares

Data source: Apple investor relations. * Latest stock split is still pending as of publication date.

When choosing to split its stock, Apple typically followed the rules that prevailed in the broader stock market at the time. Apple’s first stock split in 1987 came after the stock price had reached roughly $80 per share. A 2-for-1 split gave Apple plenty of breathing room to avoid triple-digit share prices. When Apple stock next came near the $100 mark in 2000, another split sent the share price back downward. Similarly, Apple traded in the low $80s in 2005 when it did its third 2-for-1 stock split.

A change in split strategy

By then, however, companies had started to change their stance toward stock splits. Many companies no longer felt it necessary to keep their share prices at relatively low levels. As a result, when Apple once again approached $100 per share, the tech giant did nothing. The stock price continued to move ever higher; it was interrupted briefly by the financial crisis, but eventually moved to $700 per share. After 2005, Apple adopted a new approach. Even though the stock climbed into the triple digits by 2007, the company didn’t use its previous playbook and instead allowed its shares to continue to appreciate. Despite dramatic volatility both before and during the financial crisis in 2008 and 2009, Apple quickly rebounded and soared to as much as $700 per share by 2014.

At that point, Apple broke with the new tradition and decided to split its stock again. The company trotted out the usual explanation of making shares more readily available to investors. Yet as it happens, the split likely proved instrumental in allowing Apple to become part of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES:^DJI). The price-weighted average would’ve been hard-pressed to accept Apple’s commanding influence if its stock price had remained at $700 or more. After an unusual 7-for-1 split, shares in the low triple digits were quite reasonable to factor into the Dow’s calculations.

Seven iPhone 11s in different colors, displayed in an overlapping row.

Image source: Apple.

Another game-changing move

Six years later, Apple has once again defied convention. Even as tech rivals push headlong into four-digit territory, the mobile device giant has returned to its usual modus operandi, choosing a 4-for-1 stock split that should return its stock price to right around $100 per share. Once again, Apple argues that it wants its stock to be more accessible to a broader base of investors — even though innovations like odd-lot trading and fractional shares have made stock price much less important than it was earlier in Apple’s history.

What’s surprising is that there was no apparent ulterior motive for doing the split. Sure, Apple has by far the highest share price in the Dow, so it has a 10% weighting in the average. Yet the company’s huge market cap gives it equally heavy weight in other indexes. In the S&P 500, for instance, Apple’s weight is approaching 6% — and the S&P is a much broader benchmark than the Dow.

What Apple’s stock split really means for investors

Stock splits make no real difference in the value of the company. After the split, shareholders will own four times as many shares, with a share price roughly a quarter of what it was prior to the split.

However, investors are taking the news as a sign of confidence that Apple can continue to see its stock rise. For a company as big as Apple has become, that’s a pleasant surprise — and it’s one that could propel Apple’s share price ever higher even after the split takes effect in late August.

This Social Security Rule Should Have the Rich Jumping for Joy in 2021 – The Motley Fool

For the more than 64 million people currently receiving a Social Security benefit, we’ve entered the most important time of the year. That’s because the next couple of months will determine how much of a “raise,” if any, beneficiaries will receive in 2021.

It’s the most important time of the year for Social Security’s 64 million-plus beneficiaries

Since 1975, the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) has served as Social Security’s inflationary tether. The CPI-W measures the changes in price for a large basket of goods and services.

A Social Security card wedged between fanned cash bills.

Image source: Getty Images.

To determine Social Security’s annual cost-of-living adjustment (COLA), only readings from the third quarter (July through September) are considered. Thus, the average CPI-W reading from the third quarter of the current year is compared to the average CPI-W reading from the third quarter of the previous year. If this figure has risen from one year to the next (signifying inflation), Social Security’s beneficiaries will be getting a raise that’s commensurate with the percentage increase and rounded to the nearest tenth of a percent.

In 42 of the past 45 years, Social Security beneficiaries have received a “raise” to help them keep up with inflation.

But this wasn’t the case in 2010, 2011, or 2016. In the event that the CPI-W shows prices have fallen on a year-over-year basis (i.e., deflation), Social Security’s COLA is 0%. Essentially, benefits remain static from one year to the next. Thankfully, monthly benefits can’t decline due to deflation.

With July now in the books, there are two months left that matter in determining Social Security’s COLA for 2021. However, it isn’t looking promising for beneficiaries that they’ll be seeing a bump up in their payouts come January.

According to June inflation data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the CPI-W has increased by a mere 0.5% over the trailing 12-month period. The somewhat similar Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) shows a double-digit percentage decline for all things energy over the past 12 months, which substantive declines in transportation services, apparel, and used cars and trucks. Though it’s possible COLA could be positive for 2021, it’s looking probable that next year will be fourth time in 46 years where beneficiaries don’t receive a COLA. 

A wealthy businessman in a suit who's lying back on a pile of cash.

Image source: Getty Images.

No COLA in 2021 would be great news for high-income earners

However, Social Security’s COLA determination affects more than just what its 64 million-plus beneficiaries take home each month. The fact is that a 0% COLA could have high-income earners jumping for joy.

In a typical year, the National Average Wage Index (NAWI) — a measure of wage trends in the U.S. used by the Social Security Administration — will increase. The year-over-year percentage increase in the NAWI is what’s used to determine the annual increase in the maximum taxable earnings cap associated with the 12.4% payroll tax on earned income.

For example, the 2018 NAWI was 3.6% higher than the previous year. Therefore, the maximum taxable earnings cap rose from $132,900 last year to $137,700, as of 2020. This $4,800 bump represents an increase of (drum roll) 3.6%.

But there’s an interesting Social Security rule that comes into play when the program’s COLA is 0%. In years where deflation occurs, the maximum taxable earnings cap remains unchanged from one year to the next. This holds true even if the NAWI is positive — and according to Social Security Administration projections, the NAWI was expected to rise 3.1% for the upcoming year’s calculation.

In other words, 94% of working Americans won’t earn $137,700 in 2020, and will therefore be paying into Social Security, via the payroll tax, on every dollar they make. It’s the remaining 6% who earn more than $137,700 that are required to pay more each year when the NAWI leads to an increase in the payroll tax cap. But if there’s no COLA in 2021, there won’t be a payroll tax cap increase, either. This means the rich will be able to hang onto more of their earned income, at least for one year.

A person holding up a large white puzzle piece with a question mark drawn on it.

Image source: Getty Images.

Why isn’t Social Security taxing the rich more?

You’re now probably asking yourself why this loophole exists in the first place. In essence, why aren’t the well-to-do being taxed more to strengthen the Social Security program?

The answer to this question lies with yet another Social Security rule.

You see, there’s a maximum monthly payout allowable at full retirement age ($3,011 in 2020). Although this maximum payout is often adjusted on an annual basis, the fact is that the maximum taxable earnings cap exists because there’s also a cap on how much a retired worker can receive each month. It doesn’t make sense to tax millions of dollars in earned income if the most an individual can expect to receive is $3,011 a month from Social Security.

Additionally, even with the American public in favor of taxing high-income earners more, amending the Social Security Act isn’t easy. Doing so requires 60 votes in the Senate, and there hasn’t been a true supermajority in over 40 years. To amend the Social Security Act would require bipartisan support; and Republican lawmakers have already stated their objection to increasing taxes on the wealthy to generate additional revenue.

While 2021 could be another bad year for Social Security recipients on the loss of purchasing power front, it might be a great year for high-income workers.

Debate begins for whos first in line for COVID-19 vaccine – The Associated Press

Who gets to be first in line for a COVID-19 vaccine? U.S. health authorities hope by late next month to have some draft guidance on how to ration initial doses, but it’s a vexing decision.

“Not everybody’s going to like the answer,” Dr. Francis Collins, director of the National Institutes of Health, recently told one of the advisory groups the government asked to help decide. “There will be many people who feel that they should have been at the top of the list.”

Traditionally, first in line for a scarce vaccine are health workers and the people most vulnerable to the targeted infection.

But Collins tossed new ideas into the mix: Consider geography and give priority to people where an outbreak is hitting hardest.

And don’t forget volunteers in the final stage of vaccine testing who get dummy shots, the comparison group needed to tell if the real shots truly work.

“We owe them … some special priority,” Collins said.

Huge studies this summer aim to prove which of several experimental COVID-19 vaccines are safe and effective. Moderna Inc. and Pfizer Inc. began tests last week that eventually will include 30,000 volunteers each; in the next few months, equally large calls for volunteers will go out to test shots made by AstraZeneca, Johnson & Johnson and Novavax. And some vaccines made in China are in smaller late-stage studies in other countries.

For all the promises of the U.S. stockpiling millions of doses, the hard truth: Even if a vaccine is declared safe and effective by year’s end, there won’t be enough for everyone who wants it right away — especially as most potential vaccines require two doses.

It’s a global dilemma. The World Health Organization is grappling with the same who-goes-first question as it tries to ensure vaccines are fairly distributed to poor countries — decisions made even harder as wealthy nations corner the market for the first doses.

In the U.S., the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices, a group established by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, is supposed to recommend who to vaccinate and when — advice that the government almost always follows.

But a COVID-19 vaccine decision is so tricky that this time around, ethicists and vaccine experts from the National Academy of Medicine, chartered by Congress to advise the government, are being asked to weigh in, too.

Setting priorities will require “creative, moral common sense,” said Bill Foege, who devised the vaccination strategy that led to global eradication of smallpox. Foege is co-leading the academy’s deliberations, calling it “both this opportunity and this burden.”

With vaccine misinformation abounding and fears that politics might intrude, CDC Director Robert Redfield said the public must see vaccine allocation as “equitable, fair and transparent.”

How to decide? The CDC’s opening suggestion: First vaccinate 12 million of the most critical health, national security and other essential workers. Next would be 110 million people at high risk from the coronavirus — those over 65 who live in long-term care facilities, or those of any age who are in poor health — or who also are deemed essential workers. The general population would come later.

CDC’s vaccine advisers wanted to know who’s really essential. “I wouldn’t consider myself a critical health care worker,” admitted Dr. Peter Szilagyi, a pediatrician at the University of California, Los Angeles.

Indeed, the risks for health workers today are far different than in the pandemic’s early days. Now, health workers in COVID-19 treatment units often are the best protected; others may be more at risk, committee members noted.

Beyond the health and security fields, does “essential” mean poultry plant workers or schoolteachers? And what if the vaccine doesn’t work as well among vulnerable populations as among younger, healthier people? It’s a real worry, given that older people’s immune systems don’t rev up as well to flu vaccine.

With Black, Latino and Native American populations disproportionately hit by the coronavirus, failing to address that diversity means “whatever comes out of our group will be looked at very suspiciously,” said ACIP chairman Dr. Jose Romero, Arkansas’ interim health secretary.

Consider the urban poor who live in crowded conditions, have less access to health care and can’t work from home like more privileged Americans, added Dr. Sharon Frey of St. Louis University.

And it may be worth vaccinating entire families rather than trying to single out just one high-risk person in a household, said Dr. Henry Bernstein of Northwell Health.

Whoever gets to go first, a mass vaccination campaign while people are supposed to be keeping their distance is a tall order. During the 2009 swine flu pandemic, families waited in long lines in parking lots and at health departments when their turn came up, crowding that authorities know they must avoid this time around.

Operation Warp Speed, the Trump administration’s effort to speed vaccine manufacturing and distribution, is working out how to rapidly transport the right number of doses to wherever vaccinations are set to occur.

Drive-through vaccinations, pop-up clinics and other innovative ideas are all on the table, said CDC’s Dr. Nancy Messonnier.

As soon as a vaccine is declared effective, “we want to be able the next day, frankly, to start these programs,” Messonnier said. “It’s a long road.”

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The Associated Press Health and Science Department receives support from the Howard Hughes Medical Institute’s Department of Science Education. The AP is solely responsible for all content.

Flash Crash: Bitcoin Price Slides by $1.4K in Minutes – CoinDesk – CoinDesk

Bitcoin suffered a price drop of $1,458 in under an hour on Sunday. The sudden slide caught many traders off guard, forcing out a significant amount of buying pressure from the market.

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